What do Manchester United need to qualify for Champions League last 16?

After their draw against Galatasaray on Wednesday, Manchester United face an uphill battle to qualify for the Champions League last 16.

Erik ten Hag’s team are currently bottom of Group A with one match remaining. However, despite securing only one victory in their five games so far, there remains a possibility for them to qualify for the knockout stage of the competition.

The Athletic explains what United need to qualify for the knockout stages…

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The current standings

Pos	Team	GP	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich (Q)	6	6	16
2	Copenhagen (Q)	6	0	8
3	Galatasaray	6	-3	5
4	Manchester United	6	-3	4

After five group-stage encounters and a thrilling 3-3 draw against Galatasaray, United find themselves bottom of Group A with four points. While this might seem like an ominous position, the scenario isn’t as bleak as it may initially seem.

As anticipated, Bayern Munich effortlessly navigated through Group A, securing their spot in the knockout stage with two matches remaining.

Despite early predictions favouring United to advance, they are on the cusp of exiting Europe’s elite tournament. Copenhagen and Galatasaray are both level on five points in second and third place.

What do Manchester United need to qualify for the knockout stage?

The defining moment in United’s Champions League campaign looms large on December 12, where they face the daunting task of tackling group leaders Bayern.

They need to beat Bayern and hope Copenhagen and Galatasaray draw when they meet on the final matchday.

Both Copenhagen and Galatasaray still have the opportunity to advance, with either team joining Bayern in the last 16 with a victory.

If United beat Bayern, a win would take them to seven points. If Copenhagen and Galatasaray draw, then they would both finish on six points, thus seeing the Premier League club progress to the knockouts.

United’s match against Bayern takes place at Old Trafford.

If Manchester United fail to win, what happens?

Put simply, United won’t qualify for the last 16 of the Champions League if they fail to beat Bayern.

Should, however, United beat Bayern and there is a winner in the other match in Group A, Ten Hag’s side will finish in third place and drop into the Europa League.

Copenhagen’s progress relies on a win over Galatasaray or securing a draw, provided United don’t defeat Bayern.

Galatasaray’s route to the last 16, meanwhile, hinges on securing a victory against Copenhagen due to an inferior goal difference and the previous 2-2 draw in their initial encounter.

What are the tiebreakers?

UEFA have a number of criteria to separate teams who end the group stage on equal points.

higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;

superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;

higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question;

if, after having applied criteria 1) to 3), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria 1) to 3) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria 5) to 11) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal;

superior goal difference in all group matches;

higher number of goals scored in all group matches;

higher number of away goals scored in all group matches;

higher number of wins in all group matches;

higher number of away wins in all group matches;

lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);

higher club coefficient

United need to beat Bayern to make qualify for the last 16 (Photo: Abdulhamid Hosbas/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The key stats going into matchday six

There has been 18 previous instances since 2003-04 of teams facing off on matchday six while level on points – like Copenhagen and Galatasaray – but just one of those has finished level.

22.8 per cent of Champions League group stage games end in a draw, while 22.5 per cent of matchday six games finish all square.

Based on these stats alone, it’s not looking good for United.

‘We have to win the next game’ – Ten Hag

Following United’s draw in Turkey, Ten Hag said he took responsibility over his side relinquishing another lead in the Champions League.

In a previous group game in Copenhagen, United allowed a two-goal lead to slip away before succumbing to a 4-3 defeat.

Ten Hag said to TNT Sports: “It’s always me (who is to blame for throwing away leads). I am responsible for this, but also know we are in a project.

“We are in the right direction, so I know where we have to go and which steps we have to take and I’m sure we will be successful in the long term.

“If we want to stay in the Champions League, we have to win the next game.”

When does the 2023-24 knockout stage start?

The last-16 matches, played across two legs, are scheduled for February and March.

The culmination of this season’s competition is set to unfold at Wembley Stadium in June next year.

Round of 16: February 13/14/20/21 and March 5/6/12/13, 2024

Quarter-finals: April 9/10 and 16/17, 2024

Semi-finals: April 30/May 1 and May 7/8, 2024

Final: June 1, 2024

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(Photo: Vasile Mihai-Antonio/Getty Images)

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